If the prior probability of the explanation is extremely low and coincidence has not been ruled out as an alternative explanation, judge the logic of the argument to be weak. It must be emphatically added that the world is in many ways mysterious, and that science can be mistaken, and often is. Exploratory research is defined as a research used to investigate a problem which is not clearly defined. 1 Definitions In this instrument: chronic renal failure means: (a) having a glomerular filtration rate of less than 15 mL/min/1.73 m 2 for a period of at least 3 months; or (b) a need for renal replacement therapy (dialysis or transplantation) for treatment of complications of decreased glomerular filtration rate Sample answer. A colleague visited several Washington-area bookstores and slipped a small note into about 70 books . For singular explanationssuch as The butler did it or This man was a Marine sergeantthe best question to ask is this: Is this sort of thing known to occur, and does it occur more frequently than do the leading alternatives? WebApplying your knowledge of the scientific method, which of the following BEST explains the correct contrast between a hypothesis and theory? Sales of vegetarian foods vary by season. An increase in family income leads to an increase in the percentage of income spent on housing. General explanationan explanation that can apply to a wide range of observable outcomes. The husband said he put the pipe somewhere, and the plumber had no way of knowing where; how often is someone going to be able to sneak in and find something like that without being caught? This result can be explained by the fact that because the teachers expected them to do well, their perceptions of each students ability rose and those childrens own self-image was enhanced. David Lewis and James Greene, Thinking Better. Just watchas my horoscope says, something will disappoint me today. Dr. R.A. Rabinoff, professor of physics at Maharishi International University (MIU), presented a paper titled Effect of Coherent Collective Consciousness on the Weather reporting evidence that the weather could be modified by practicing transcendental meditation (TM). Be careful not to confuse explanatory arguments with deductive arguments that commit the fallacy of affirming the consequent. For general explanations, a good way to check for simplicity is to ask whether the explanation predicts the smoothest possible curve.In the 17th century, the Italian mathematician Torricelli hypothesized that the Earth was surrounded by a sea of air, which decreased in pressure uniformly as the altitude increased. Explanatory arguments typically expand our knowledge by offering a different subject matter in the conclusion. To return to an earlier case, no lesser a light than Thomas Jefferson, when he heard the reports of meteorites from Harvard and Brown professors, said, I would rather believe that the Yankee professors lied than that stones fall from the heavens. This was probably reasonable as an initial reactionthough, in this case, the high standards were eventually met. An increase in family income leads to an increase in the percentage of income spent on housing. Explanatory/ Causal /Bivariate Hypothesis. A relationship that has been established based on a large amount of observational and experimental data is: Why is it that creationism can never be accepted as a scientific explanation of the origin of life? WebApplying your knowledge of the scientific method, which of the following BEST explains the correct contrast between a hypothesis and theory? Explanatory arguments require humble attention to the facts of our experience, as Huxley notes above. Which of the following statements is true of an explanatory My argument may provide a small measure of logical support for its conclusion, but what it does not do is rule out the following alternative explanations: A more careful test of the same theory would rule out these alternatives by using two large groupsone group that receives Vitamin C and a control group that receives a placeboin a double blind test. Epistemic probability, as explained in Chapter 9, refers to the probability of the statements truth given all relevant available evidence. The logic of the argument is accordingly weak. a. The second premise states that the observable outcome has happenedthat it has been observed. Rather, it is to say that an argument for magic must meet high standards, and this one does not yet do so. Web16.4 Summary of Chapter Sixteen. I recently organized a small test of this hypothesis. I do take a lot of vitamin C over the winter and get only one or two colds, though I usually get three or four. The argument concludes with the assertion of the explanation. As we have seen in the preceding chapters, the conclusion of a strong induction must fit both the premises and the available background evidence. Explanatory arguments come in several varieties. Even across the street I could see a great blue anchor tattooed on the back of the fellows hand. A. This is not to say dogmatically that magic cannot happen. e. none of the above. c. Hypotheses usually are relatively narrow in scope; theories have broad explanatory power. For a solution to be termed a scientific hypothesis, it has to be an idea that can be supported or refuted through carefully crafted experimentation or observation. Woman on a TV talk show with theme Moms who keep secrets from daughters: Mom, you always told me that my father was killed in the war right after I was born. A hypothesis is a tentative explanation . Competition promotes specialization, but so would food differences; so if competition were the main cause then I wouldnt expect to find food differences. These crops are laid down in these sensational patterns by an energy that is of a high level of intelligence. Alas, two British painters finally confessed that they had perpetrated the hoax over a 13-year period simply by pulling around flat, four-foot planks by hand with reins to topple over the stalks. is true. One morning she wakes up after a late night reading and finds her vision is somewhat blurred; she immediately diagnoses optic neuritis. [If competition for food among finches on Galapagos is the main cause of extremes in beak sizes, then there are extremes in beak sizes on Galapagos finches, there is no relevant difference in food from island to island, and in conditions of scarcity the finches with extremes survive best. Which of the following would be the most reasonable testable prediction for the hypothesis: "All birds can fly"? It must establish an alternative explanation for a phenomenon. Explanatory arguments are probably the most fundamental and frequently used of all arguments, both in science and in everyday life. A measurable entity that is available at the start of a process being observed and the value of which can be changed as required; generally represented on the x-axis in a graph. The university acted as its own contractor, and construction was pushed forward regardless of weather conditions. He has undergone hardship and sickness, as his haggard face says clearly. A) experiential method B) scientific method C) intuitive process D) strategic management process E) account planning philosophy B) scientific method Ideally, the explanation contains a cohesive and cogent understanding of the origins of the problems, the conditions that perpetuate them, the obstacles interfering with their solution, and the resources available to address them. Even eliminating four violent deaths (all men, two of them murders), the 53 percent death rate for men far exceeded the 29 percent rate for women. So the arguments logic must be considered weak. 1) A complex, ordered organization consisting of one or more cells. Bring it all together by fully clarifying and evaluating the explanatory arguments in each of these passages. Select the correctly ordered list of psychological theorists, with the earliest theorist listed first. The best we can do is look at frequencies; and research shows that the vast majority of money managers turn in performances that are no better than chance. But the second letter, using the same observable outcome, offers an alternative explanationnamely, that a plumber visited, left the pipe, then surreptitiously retrieved it. The Total Evidence Condition for Explanatory Arguments. a. assertive behavior. Experts are tested by Chegg as specialists in their subject area. Exploratory research is defined as a research used to investigate a problem which is not clearly defined. Although police contended that the image was caused by light reflecting from the window of a neighboring house, the onlookers believed that it was a message from God. Ann Arbor News. Organisms are able to maintain relatively constant internal conditions that may differ from the external environment. Clearly, the plumber explanation has a much lower prior probability than does the affair explanation. Observable outcome: An image looking like the outline of the Virgin Mary was seen on the wall of a house. But the editors at. Both explanations do an equally good job of entailing Periers results as their observable outcome. No one would have expected a comet in December 1758 unless they were assuming the Newtonian explanation; such an event would have been extremely improbable. Sample exercise. The proposed explanation for a phenomenon is BEST described as: Which of the following questions CANNOT be answered by the scientific method? The second premise states that the observable outcome is known to have happenedthat it has been observed. e. none of the above, b. behavior directed toward the goal of harming a person who is motivated to avoid such treatment, Smith's research concerning violence in hockey showed that But you would have done far better to propose, Seven is not in the set. If you had been right, you not only would have confirmed your preferred even-numbers answer, but also you would have ruled out the whole-numbers alternativethereby improving the logical support for your answer. In practice, it is usually easy to tell the difference between an explanatory argument and a deductive argument. Drug companies sometimes hire independent research laboratories to evaluate whether a drug they've discovered is effective or not in treating an illness. a. with the intent to harm physically. Real estate investment trusts (REITs) experienced a record level of profitability in 2004 Soles e. a and c, General strategies for controlling spectator aggression include which of the following? B. Confirmation biasour natural tendency to look for outcomes that support our preferred explanation rather than those that might also falsify the alternatives. Immediately penalize spectators for aggressive acts. The conceptual framework was eventually supplied: the most important causal mechanism behind it is gravity, and, according to the eventually well-established Newtonian laws, gravitys pull on the air molecules decreases regularly as distance from Earth increases. Signs that an Argument Is Explanatory Rather than Fallacy of Affirming the Consequent. One emphasizes the power of suggestion as a psychological process; if faith can heal, despair can kill. a. Which of the following statements is CORRECT? No one can even begin to provide an account of the conceptual framework, of the causal mechanisms, that would make sense of it. B. d. a and b. e. a and c. b. in the quest of some nonaggressive goal. It is much harder to invent an explanation that successfully predicts future observations. When we compare frequencies we see that the prior probability of each portion of the plumber explanation is quite low; and the conjunction of all portions (recall Chapter 10this requires that the probabilities of all the parts be multiplied) is far, far lower. But when, having slept in the car, your friend says, This water boiled quickly, so we must be well above sea level, this is offered as a reason to believe that we are well above sea level. Because the explanation does no work in making the outcome probable, it should get none of the credit when the outcome is observed. Observable outcome: As my horoscope says, at 3:00 today my bank will call and tell me that they have gone bankrupt and my life savings is lost. There are a few money managers who succeed on the basis of skillmultibillionaire Warren Buffet is the most famous example. They must satisfy the correct form condition, but, like every other inductive argument, they would be logical failures were that their only success; they must also satisfy the total evidence condition. The independent variable is manipulated to cause-effect on the dependent variable and the dependent variable is measured to examine the effect WebShort Answer. For example, an unnoticed erotic image on a Ritz cracker, Key says, makes the Ritz cracker taste even better, because all of the senses are interconnected in the brain. The problem with his argument is that another explanation for these unnoticed images already exists; we all know that were capable of finding images if we look really hard for them, simply as the products of our imagination. So my jealousy explanation flunks the test for low prior probability. C. It's correlated, but not causal. The explanation here is The gods are powerful and the observable outcome is Many who worship the gods have escaped from shipwrecks. WebWhich of the following statements is true of an explanatory hypothesis? Hypotheses are guesses; theories are correct answers. Add a moving part to the machine, and the probability that every part will work drops dramatically. A set of analytical and mathematical tools designed to further the understanding of numerical data. You'll get a detailed solution from a subject matter expert that helps you learn core concepts. Halleys job would have been much easier if, instead of predicting a comet precisely in December 1758, he had made the following vague prediction: At least one comet will appear somewhere in the sky at some time in the future. d. all of the above In science, theories tend to be ___________ than hypotheses. Pity, the evidence went up in smoke. the scientific study of mind and behavior. She claims she has never seen that pipe before and doesnt know how it got there. Where in the tropics could an English army doctor have seen much hardship and got his arm wounded? Which of the following would be classified as an aggressive act? The explanations prior probabilitythat is, its probability prior to judging whether the observable outcome is truemust not be implausibly low and it must be higher than that of the leading alternative explanations. c. with the intent to harm psychologically. By sheer coincidence, a few of these thousands of dreams are going to seem to come true, and these are the ones that will stick most vividly in my memory (remember the vividness shortcut from Chapter 1). Abby tells her therapist that she tripped a small child who got in her way, and her therapist accepts this information without judgment. Draw conclusions and make revisions. b. trained counselors What is explained in an explanatory argument; the observable outcome follows from the explanation and can in a certain way, at a certain time, and under certain conditions, be seen, heard, smelled, tasted, or touched. It makes no statement with respect to causation. . Then it is an explanatory argument. Thanks for the example to W. V. Quine and J.S. Treatment: in a research study, any condition applied to subjects - those in the treatment group - that is not applied to subjects in a control group. d. a and b. e. a and c. b. in the quest of some nonaggressive goal. For example, our hypothesis in this case could be that the toast didn't toast because the electrical outlet is broken. The explanation must be sufficiently probable. Which of the following defines hypothesis? . Circles that had only later begun to appear elsewhere, they suggested, were created by copycats. I found a Thai restaurant and now I go there for lunch every day. Punishing student pilots when they perform poorly is followed by improved performance more often than rewarding them when they perform well. So the outcome probably would be true even if the gods explanation were false, and the argument is logically extremely weak. The other roots the power of suggestion in physiology: extreme fright and despair disrupt the sympathetic nervous system and paralyze body functions. The notes were placed about three-quarters of the way through each book, hard against the spine so that they could not be shaken out. In Maslow's hierarchy of needs, the ________ include food, water, and shelter. The cages were then placed in the same spot where the frogs laid the eggs. One variable is manipulated, while others are held constant. 6) Evolutionary adaptation leading to descent with modification over time. Sample answer. \end{bmatrix} Muluple Choice Young women purchase fewer meats than women who are 35 years of age or older. In another type of distinction, some explanatory arguments are general, given that they have application to a wide range of possible observable outcomes; others are singular, in that they apply only to a specific outcome. a. setting up specific guidelines distinguishing assertive play from inappropriate aggressive play Scientists generally base scientific hypotheses on previous observations that cannot satisfactorily be explained with the available scientific theories. Average people will harm others if told to do so by an authority figure. It is just an explanation, designed to make the unexpected experience easier to understand. e. Follow up. The experimental subjects do not know which (if any) treatment they are receiving. Answer: 16: They got pregnant shortly thereafter and concluded (and counseled their friends) that thinking too much about it was itself responsible for their failure to conceive. Further, we suppose that causal mechanisms operate uniformly in the worldthat under similar circumstances they operate similarly, and that slight dissimilarities in circumstances tend to produce slight dissimilarities in the way they operate. To illustrate this bias, suppose I tell you that I have in mind a set of numbers that includes the numbers 2, 4, and 6, and I then ask you to guess what set of numbers I am thinking of. Which of the following statements is true of an explanatory Which of the following commonly used terms comes closest to the meaning of what scientists call a "hypothesis"? WebA hypothesis is a potential answer to the question, one that can somehow be tested. Scientists generally base scientific hypotheses on previous observations that cannot satisfactorily be explained with the available scientific theories. For singular explanations, the simplest one normally offers the fewest explanatory entities. A. Empirical knowledge is knowledge that is based on experience and observation. Here is an example from Arthur Conan Doyles A Study in Scarlet; Dr. Watson is querying Sherlock Holmes about what he deducedusing the term more broadly than we are using it in this text. And it is highly probable that we will have any observation at all. Any unfalsifiable explanation is in principle unable to satisfy the improbable-outcome criterion and can never be the conclusion of a sound explanatory argument. Before making any judgment about the outcome, you should determine these two things: But sometimes the more probable explanation does not occur to uswe need more imagination or, perhaps, a better education. A. A form that cannot pull any of the load in a deductive argument may nevertheless pull a share of the load in an inductive one. Although there is no formula for deciding on the improbability of the outcome, there are some helpful strategies that you can follow in making your decision. A body of knowledge based on observation, description, experimentation, and explanation of natural phenomena. This insight can be especially valuable when improbable events are explained by appeal to the paranormal. d. frustration A general, fact-based understanding of the basics of biology and other sciences, the scientific method, and the social, political, and legal implications of scientific information. Science85. It comes down to physiology, says Grayson. ________ is a perspective within psychology that emphasizes the potential for good that is innate to all humans, proposing a hierarchy of human needs in motivating behavior. The first part focuses on the importance of the improbability of the outcome. My heads-tossing student may have been skillful, or she may have gotten lucky . How does Abbys conclusion fare in the face of this alternative explanation? e. all of the above. Why? c. students with good leadership and communication skills d. college students studying counseling It makes no statement with respect to causation. c. social learning theory The planet is too dim to be seen, but the scientists said they are convinced it is there because the pulsar emits radio signals that vary in a way that can best be explained by the gravitational tug of a nearby planetthe waves are a bit early for three months, then for three months arrive a bit late. It has long been my suspicion that, especially in Washington, when people say that they have read a book, they mean something other than attempting to glean meaning from each sentence. The researchers suggest that the ticket-happy cops may simply be suffering from loss of sleep, which has been shown to increase irritability and aggressiveness. William James was the ________. We do know, however, that deception of this sort happensthat there are entertainers who work very hard at producing illusions like this, and they can make a lot of honest money at it. Dont worry about whether the outcome has much likelihood of being true (since that has to do with the truth of premise 2, not with the logic of the argument). c. fans are not affected in terms of aggressive tendencies by watching a sporting event Categorize types of drugs used to treat psychological disorders. Punishment motivates learning better than does reward.. For general explanations, a good way to check for simplicity is to ask. The first point of distinction is chronological. 1. Then-clause is said to be unlikely without if-clause. Which of the following is (are) NOT among criteria for judging aggression? In a window on one side was a burning Molotov cocktail. Webe. we know that, option c. An increase in fam. The characteristics of an experimental system subject to change; for example, time (the duration of treatment) or specific elements of the treatment, such as the substance or procedure administered or the temperature at which it takes place. If the man were a Marine sergeant, then he would have a maritime tattoo, a military carriage, regulation side-whiskers, and an air of command. The fact remains that she tossed heads, on demand, five times in a row, but you now realize that coincidence is at least as good an explanation as talentafter all, how many people can actually toss heads whenever they want?and you are likely to lose interest. And chivalry didnt make the difference, the researchers say, since women got no more food than men. The explanation is more probable than the leading alternatives. Which Shakespearean sonnet is the most beautiful? a. how to be rough and tough without getting thrown out of the game. All of these. We are the only two people in this apartment. Healthy people who rate their health as poor know enough about their health to know that they are not as healthy as healthy people who rate their health as excellent. Given that they are elderly and in the low end of the healthy group, they will die sooner. Aggression facilitates performance. Dear Papa Bear: Its just a wild guess, but I think somebodys been sleeping in your bed. This is solid evidence for the existence of the so-called sophomore jinx. Several other terms account for roughly the same thing. A theory predicts events in a broad, general context; a hypothesis makes a specific prediction about a specified set of circumstances. (If necessary, review Section 4.4.4.4.4.4.) Now its been discovered that the icebergs are broken pieces of huge ice shelves that are hundreds of years old, according to a study reported in the, Death and disaster provide a convincing argument that, contrary to the persistent notion, women are not the weaker sex. Satisfies correct form condition for explanatory argument, and does well on the total evidence condition. d. Frustration produces physical but not psychological aggression. e. a and c, Which of the following is not an explanation put forth to explain athletes' aggressive behavior? . P.S. c. Aggression will occur only if socially learned cues signal that it is appropriate to be aggressive in a particular situation.
Mcdonald's Uniform Catalog, Has Nabisco Changed The Ritz Cracker Recipe, Michener Center For Writers Alumni, When Did Offaly Win All Ireland Football, Houses For Rent By Owner In Katy, Tx 77449, Articles W